What are the possible impacts of Exchange Rate fluctuations on FMCG prices, Consumption and Consumer Behaviour?

SumsureIQ estimates that within the last 2 to 3 months (March-May 2025), the Ghanaian local Currency, CEDI, (GHS) has appreciated by over +28% against other foreign currencies on a year-on-year basis compared to a similar rate of depreciation at the same period last year. These are massive swings in the value of the GHS vis-a-vis other foreign currencies and such fluctuations have massive implications for FMCG consumption and prices. SumsureIQ, therefore presents some of the possible impacts for your read.
Impacts on FMCG prices

1. Price Increases Due to Imported Inputs and finished goods
   Imported Raw Materials: Many FMCG companies rely on imported inputs (e.g., packaging, ingredients, machinery). When a country’s currency depreciates, the cost of importing these goods increases leading to higher prices of FMCG products. Thus, a weaker local currency makes these imports more expensive. On the other hand, when the local currency appreciates, it makes the imported goods cheaper, potentially reducing the prices. To maintain profit margins, manufacturers often pass these increased costs on to the final consumers and therefore, raising retail and FMCG prices.
2. Changes in Consumer Purchasing Power
   Weaker Local Currency = Reduced Real Incomes and conversely, Stronger Local currency = to Increased Real Income. This is true, especially for imported or foreign-brand products. Consumers may find their money buys less of these FMCG products. These higher prices may push consumers toward local or lower-cost brands, affecting brand loyalty and product preferences.
3. Inventory and Supply Chain Challenges
   Due to uncertainty about the local currency, FMCG retailers and distributors might stock up products when the is depreciating, intending to sell the products when the currency appreciates, creating artificial shortages. Additionally, Exchange rate volatility can cause delays or increased costs in logistics and procurement.
4. Profit Margin Pressures
   Exchange rate volatilities may cause some FMCG manufacturing companies to choose not to pass on full price increases to consumers to stay competitive, hurting profitability. However, some may adjust their pricing policing strategies to account for the fluctuation and potentially, affecting profit margins. Retailers, especially small ones, may face narrower profit margins or reduce stock variety to manage the increasing costs.
5. Export Opportunities or Challenges
   One advantage of fluctuating exchange rates to the local manufacturers is the potential opensing of export opportunities. A weaker local currency may make domestically produced FMCG products more competitive on the international market or abroad so these local companies may take the opportunity to increase their exports. However, If production inputs and raw material are mostly imported, the cost increases may outweigh export opportunity advantages.
   Impact on Consumption of FMCG products
6. Demand of FMCG products
   Exchange rate fluctuations can influence demand for FMCG products. A stranger local currency may lead to increased demand for imported goods to the disadvantage of the locally produced FMCG products, while a weaker local currency may reduce the demand on imported FMCG products to the advantage of the locally produced ones.
7. Changes in Consumer Behaviour
   FMCG consumers may adjust their purchasing decisions based on price changes resulting from the exchange rate volatility. For example, consumers may shift from the purchases on branded products to the purchases of retailers own brands or private labels.
8. Substitution effect
   In a period of fluctuating exchange rates, consumers may adapt to the usage of substitutes. Typically, consumers may opt for locally produced alternatives or substitute entire products in order to cope with the changing prices.
   Key Considerations for FMCG Companies and Consumers
9. Hedging Strategies
   In a period of exchange rate volatility, manufacturers and companies may consider using hedging strategies to limit the impact. They may use such strategies as forward contracts or options to mitigate some of the risks associated with the fluctuations.
10. Supply Chain Management
    When exchange rate fluctuate, companies could adapt effective supply chain management process to help minimise their impacts on prices and hence, the level of consumption
11. Marketing Monitoring
    When exchange rates fluctuates, Manufacturers and companies could use market research results to closely monitor and adjust their strategies accordingly to the remain competitive
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